Democratic presidential contenders are heading to a critical stage of the primary race after Iowa and New Hampshire showed a sharply divided party that is undecided on who is best placed to face President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in November.
Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE have emerged as the two leaders after strong showings in the Hawkeye and Granite states, but they face a much different electorate in the next contests in Nevada and South Carolina.
While polls over the past few months have consistently shown former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE leading in South Carolina, and near the top in Nevada, much of the landscape has changed.
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The biggest prize, however, will come on Super Tuesday on March 3, when about a third of all pledged delegates will be allocated, with the potential to shake up the race.
Here are what polls show in each of the 15 states and territories on Super Tuesday:
Alabama:
There’s a dearth of polling in Alabama by mainstream pollsters so far.
Fifty-two pledged delegates are up for grabs in the Yellowhammer State.
American Samoa:
There have been no polls conducted for the American Samoa caucuses. The contest will allocate six pledged delegates
Arkansas:
Former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergMichael BloombergEngel scrambles to fend off primary challenge from left It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process Liberals embrace super PACs they once shunned MORE, who skipped the four early contests to compete in Super Tuesday, has the narrowest of leads in the only poll conducted in Arkansas by Talk Business and Politics–Hendrix College Poll, which was released Tuesday. Bloomberg has a 1-point edge over Biden and leads Sanders and Buttigieg by just 4 points.
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Bloomberg is buoyed in the poll by a strong lead among seniors, while Biden has a double-digit edge among African Americans, setting up a clash of two traditional Democratic bases.
Arkansas will allocate 31 pledged delegates in its primary.
California:
If Super Tuesday is the crown of the primary contest, then California is most certainly its jewel, with a whopping 415 pledged delegates at stake.
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The latest poll, which was conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for the Los Angeles Times in January, shows Sanders with a 6-point lead in California, ahead of Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (Mass.).
Colorado:
Colorado also has not seen a lot of polls for its presidential primary, which will dole out 67 pledged delegates.
Maine:
Polling has also been scarce for the Pine Tree State, whose primary will award 24 pledged delegates.
Massachusetts:
Massachusetts will hand out 91 pledged delegates.
The most recent poll by the firm Falchuk & DiNatale released by FiveThirtyEight in January shows Warren leading Biden by 7 points.
Minnesota:
No polls have been conducted this year in the Gopher State, which will allocate 75 pledged delegates.
North Carolina:
A traditional general election swing state, North Carolina has seen more polling than other Super Tuesday battlegrounds.
Biden had maintained a shrinking lead for months, but Sanders appeared to take over in a survey out Wednesday. A High Point University poll found that Sanders eclipsed Biden with 25 percent support from registered Democratic voters, compared with 19 percent for the former vice president in a new high point for the Vermont senator.
North Carolina’s primary will award 110 pledged delegates.
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Oklahoma:
No recent polling has come out in a state that will hand out 37 pledged delegates.
Tennessee:
No recent polls have been conducted in Tennessee’s primary. Sixty-four pledged delegates are up for grabs in the Volunteer State.
Texas:
Texas, which will grant the second-highest delegate haul of Super Tuesday, is expected to be hard-fought territory in March.
Biden has led in the polls in the Lone Star State, opening up a 16-point lead in a January poll by the University of Texas at Tyler. However, Bloomberg has crept into third place in Texas after a multimillion dollar ad blitz to gain ground there.
Texas will allocate 228 pledged delegates on Super Tuesday.
Utah:
Only one poll has been conducted in Utah, where 29 pledged delegates are at stake. A Suffolk University-Salt Lake Tribune survey from January found Sanders with a 13-point lead in the state.
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Vermont:
No Democratic primary polls have been conducted in Vermont, where 16 pledged delegates are up for grabs.
Virginia:
Biden has held double-digit leads in the small handful of polls that have been conducted in Virginia. The traditionally more moderate state should be friendly territory for the former vice president, though no polls have been conducted in Old Dominion since September.
Virginia’s primary will allocate 99 pledged delegates.