Plans for a far-reaching overhaul of the EU’s rules on asylum will be unveiled Wednesday, with the European Commission proposing a controversial permanent relocation scheme.

According to an outline of the strategy, seen by POLITICO, the new asylum system would scrap the idea that the EU country in which the migrant arrived also has to process the asylum application — as set out in the Dublin Regulation, which has been putting pressure on Greece and Italy for years.

The reform “would entail a fundamental change,” the Commission states, as it would include a permanent distribution scheme for migrants coming to the EU, a move that has always been fiercely opposed by Central and Eastern European countries.

There are no signs that their position is going to change any time soon, even though the Commission says the distribution method could be determined by “reflecting the relative size, wealth and absorption capacities of the Member State” and adds that “criteria such as the refugee population in Member States and unemployment levels” should be taken into account. So too should the number of migrants taken in as part of the EU-Turkey deal on resettlement of Syrian migrants.

The problem facing the Commission is that it’s come up with an ambitious plan but one that’s unlikely to work, since it would be seen as a political signal in many EU countries to increase rather than limit the number of migrants.

To counter this, the Commission has come up with a Plan B — which would keep the current system in place but give countries under particular pressure the option to call for help “in situations risking jeopardizing the application of the Dublin Regulation.”

That won’t be well received by Italians and Greeks, whose governments have long been advocating an overhaul of the Dublin system.

However, the relocation scheme could be good news for Rome and Athens, which would only be obliged to take in the number of refugees as countries of a similar size.

For Italy, a threshold similar to that of France would be a big political win. Greece’s quota could be similar to that of Austria.

As any proposal aimed at satisfying those countries on the migration frontline could anger other states, the Commission seems to have another possible compromise up its sleeve.

The strategy could link a country’s right to trigger the contingency plan to making sure it properly guards the EU’s external borders: “Triggering the supplementary mechanism should also be linked to the prior activation of operational external border support from the future European Border and Coast Guard.”

The document is rather blunt when it describes a plan, reported by Die Welt, to transfer more powers to the EU by giving its asylum agency the right to decide on asylum requests on behalf of countries. “Such a far reaching solution would … be difficult to envisage in the short or medium term,” it states.

Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this article.   

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