Kentucky Democrats think they can beat unpopular Republican Gov. Matt Bevin. But they’re worried a long, tense and expensive primary could undermine their chances of flipping a prized red state.
Despite approval ratings lower than any governor in the country, Bevin has the advantage of running a state that President Donald Trump won by 30 points in 2016, a GOP edge that has grown in recent years. And instead of stockpiling cash to take on Bevin, the top Democrats running against him have spent the months ahead of Tuesday’s primary embroiled in a tense three-way contest.
Attorney General Andy Beshear, the son of former Gov. Steve Beshear, has been the Democratic front-runner since he entered the race. But he’s facing a strong challenge from former state Auditor Adam Edelen and state Rep. Rocky Adkins in a primary featuring a slew of negative TV ads and forcing the Democrats to spend down their campaign treasuries.
"There is a Democrat in this primary that could beat Bevin given the right circumstances. The question is, are these gonna be the right circumstances?" said Phil Thompson, a former deputy campaign manager for Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes’ 2014 campaign for Senate.
The few public polls of the primary have shown Beshear with around 40 to 50 percent support and double-digit leads in the Democratic primary. That has made him the main target for Adkins and Edelen — both vying for second place in different surveys — and their supporters.
A pro-Edelen super PAC last week pulled down an ad attacking Beshear over his handling of a sexual abuse case involving the Boy Scouts of America. The ad was the latest example of Edelen’s campaign and his supporters trying to bring down Beshear by attacking his legal background and his campaign finance history, two nonpartisan issues that Republicans could pick up and run with in the general election.
It’s left Democrats unsure who will win the primary on Tuesday and how the nominee will step forward into the fight against Bevin. Beshear has picked up late support from NARAL, the pro-abortion rights group, in the final days of the primary, while Edelen won the endorsement of the Courier-Journal, the largest newspaper in Kentucky.
"If Rocky wins then there’s going to be no hard feelings because he was able to stay out of the battle and emerge without anyone attacking him. If Andy wins, he’s been kind of the one being attacked and it’s not on ideological issues it’s more on personal stuff," said Democrat Jonathan Miller, a former Kentucky state treasurer who’s now a Democratic donor. "Now the concern would be if Adam Edelen won, would the Beshear supporters turn their nose because of the negative campaign?"
Adkins, who is anti-abortion, has set himself apart from Edelen and Beshear on social issues.
Spending has been heavy in the primary. Edelen’s campaign has spent over $2 million on advertising while Beshear’s campaign has spent $1.3 million on TV ads, according to Advertising Analytics. The pro-Edelen super PAC has spent about $1 million and Adkins’ campaign has spent about $900,000. That spending won’t let up in the general.
"Both sides will have gobs of money because it’s a bellwether for the next year, said Terry McBrayer, a lobbyist and former Democratic member of the Kentucky state House.
The tough primary has followed a tough few years for Kentucky Democrats generally, from Bevin’s 2015 gubernatorial win to Trump’s 2016 victory to star House candidate Amy McGrath’s narrow loss to GOP Rep. Andy Barr in 2018. And a former Democratic officeholder, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the situation, said the combination has sapped energy from the party, even when considering that the governor’s election is an off-year race that typically has lower turnout than presidential years.
"One of the problems right now is I don’t see a whole lot of Democratic enthusiasm, period," the former Democratic elected official said. "All the years that I’ve been involved and watched Kentucky governors races I’ve never seen anything quieter."
All the while, Bevin is preparing for a serious fight to keep his job. Republicans see the infighting as a helpful twist to help them prepare for the general election.
“While the Democrats have been busy fighting amongst themselves, we’ve had a perfect opportunity to begin laying the groundwork for the general election,” Republican Governors Association communications director Amelia Chasse Alcivar said.
Bevin has also maintained a helpfully close relationship with Trump, regularly phoning the president directly. Vice President Mike Pence has made multiple trips to the state and Trump is expected to campaign for Bevin after the primary — the biggest asset a red-state Republican governor could have.
"There’s going to be a Republican, Gov. Bevin, who is President Trump’s top partner in the country, against a Democrat who brags about Hillary Clinton who pushes socialist policies that Kentucky rejects," said Bevin campaign manager Chip Englander.
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