You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet: Western States Face Decades-Long Megadroughts

“Megadroughts” that last for decades are threatening to strike already parched Western U.S. states by the end of the century, a new study finds, with one model predicting that a drought lasting about 35 years may be a “near certainty.”

A megadrought would bring back the devastating dustbowl conditions of the 1930s to California, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado, but would last for a much longer period of time, according to the study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances.

“Using a combination of temperature and precipitation models,” the Guardian reports, “the study predicts a 70 percent chance of a megadrought by the end of the century, should rainfall levels remain the same, with a 90 percent chance of an elongated drought should rainfall decrease, as most climate models forecast.”

“We can’t rule out there could be a 99.9 percent chance of a megadrought, which makes it virtually certain,” Toby Ault, a scientist at Cornell University and lead author of the study, told the Guardian.

“Historically, megadroughts were extremely rare phenomena occurring only once or twice per millennium,” the study observes. “According to our analysis of modeled responses to increased [greenhouse gas emissions], these events could become commonplace if climate change goes unabated.”