Democrats are growing more confident about their chances of retaking power in Washington with 200 days to go before Election Day.
It’s an election that both sides now see as turning on the coronavirus pandemic and the American public’s views on how President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE steers the country through the worst public health crisis in modern memory.
Recent polls suggest a tight race, but also give Democrats hope that former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE can top Trump in states such as Florida and Arizona that are crucial to his reelection chances.
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Democrats are also feeling upbeat about the Senate, where a handful of races will determine whether they can wrest away control of the chamber from Republicans.
Republicans, for their part, think the well-funded Trump campaign can help reelect the president to another four-year term, an outcome that would greatly increase the party’s chances of retaining the House majority.
And the GOP is hopeful a Trump win could provide the momentum needed to pick up 20 House seats and end Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiTrump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Pelosi: Georgia primary ‘disgrace’ could preview an election debacle in November MORE’s (D-Calif.) second Speakership.
Here’s a look at the three battlegrounds.
White House
Biden has never seemed like an unbeatable candidate, to say the least.
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Polls show his supporters are not as enthusiastic as Trump’s, his gaffes are the stuff of legend and the progressive base of the Democratic Party was hoping other candidates would win the party’s primary.
Yet Democrats do have reason for optimism this week.
The party, desperate to end Trump’s presidency at one term, is uniting around the former vice president quickly.
Former President Obama, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) have all endorsed Biden this week, giving him an advantage over 2016 nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE, who didn’t see the party begin to unify around her candidacy until the summer.
Biden leads Trump in a number of national polls, as well as in the swing states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Trump has a big cash advantage at this stage of the race, along with the power of incumbency.
But for the president, the key is almost certainly the coronavirus crisis and the recession it has caused.
Trump was hoping he would ride a strong economy into reelection. Now he must convince voters that his stewardship is the best to steer the country back to economic success.
He’s signaled he wants to begin opening the economy as quickly as possible. He’s also noted that U.S. deaths from the coronavirus are far lower than some projections, which the White House argues is evidence of the success of his policies.
Trump’s argument, an echo in some ways of former President George W. Bush’s in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, is that it would be wrong to change the nation’s leader at this critical time.
The coronavirus crisis also promises to make the election campaign uglier.
Trump has signaled he’ll make Biden’s age and his son Hunter Biden’s business in Ukraine campaign issues. He’s ripped Democrats on personal terms for opposing decisions he’s made during the battle against the pandemic.
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Biden and Democrats, for their part, will argue fewer Americans would have died if Trump had taken quicker action.
Senate
Democrats must gain the White House and a net three seats to win back the Senate — an uphill climb that is not impossible.
In reality, Democrats probably need to take four Republican seats to win the Senate. Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) is a huge underdog in a state Trump is likely to sweep to victory in November.
That means Democrats will probably have to defeat Sens. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police No evidence of unauthorized data transfers by top Chinese drone manufacturer: study Senate Democratic campaign arm launches online hub ahead of November MORE, Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Interior faces legal scrutiny for keeping controversial acting leaders in office | White House faces suit on order lifting endangered species protections | Lawmakers seek investigation of Park Police after clearing of protesters The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ MORE and Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsRepublicans prepare to punt on next COVID-19 relief bill Trump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans Trump’s tweet on protester sparks GOP backlash MORE in Arizona, Colorado and Maine, respectively, and then win a fourth seat as well.
In all three of those contests, Democrats seem to have a decent chance of winning.
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Gardner is in the fight of his political life. Not only has Colorado turned bluer in recent years, he’s facing a potential challenge from former Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperGun control group rolls out first round of Senate endorsements The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ Hickenlooper ethics questions open him up to attack MORE, the prohibitive front-runner in the state’s Senate Democratic primary.
In Arizona, McSally is up against Democrat Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut who has shattered fundraising records since launching his Senate bid early last year. McSally lost her state’s last Senate race in 2018 before Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed her to fill the vacant seat of the late Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Cindy McCain ‘disappointed’ McGrath used image of John McCain in ad attacking McConnell Report that Bush won’t support Trump reelection ‘completely made up,’ spokesman says MORE (R-Ariz.).
Collins is also in a tough race in a state where Biden will be favored to take electoral votes in November.
The best chance for Democrats to pull out a fourth victory might be in North Carolina, where Democrats think GOP Sen. Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisKoch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators The Hill’s Campaign Report: It’s primary night in Georgia Tillis unveils new 0,000 ad in North Carolina Senate race MORE (N.C.) is vulnerable.
If they can’t win there, they may look to Iowa, where Democratic outside groups are spending millions to oust Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstGeorge Conway group hits Ernst in new ad GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ MORE (R).
Republicans hope they can take out Sen. Gary PetersGary Charles PetersWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Hillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos MORE (D), who has a relatively low name ID. Trump pulled a surprise win in the state in 2016, giving the GOP hope he could do so again and that his coattails could help down the ticket.
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Democrats believe that they may be able to bring three other states into play: Kentucky, where Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote GOP senator to try to reverse requirement that Pentagon remove Confederate names from bases No, ‘blue states’ do not bail out ‘red states’ MORE (R) is facing a well-funded Democratic opponent in Amy McGrath; Texas, where Democrats are energized after a near-win against Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE (R) in 2018; and Georgia, where both of the state’s Republican senators, David Perdue and Kelly LoefflerKelly LoefflerKoch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Jon Ossoff to challenge David Perdue after winning Georgia Democratic primary Candidates headed to runoffs in Georgia House race to replace Doug Collins MORE, will face voters in November.
Each of those states will likely prove challenging for Democrats, and party operatives concede that while their chances there have improved, they’re still a reach.
House
The House is the least likely chamber to flip in the general election.
Republicans need a net gain of 20 seats to take back the majority. Republicans also have to take into account the redistricting in North Carolina, which will endanger two GOP-held seats, as well as retiring Rep. Will HurdWilliam Ballard HurdHouse Republicans hopeful about bipartisan path forward on police reform legislation House GOP delays police reform bill The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests MORE’s (R-Texas) district, which Democrats are favored to take.
It would appear Republicans are well positioned with Democrats holding 30 seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, but not all of those races are competitive. The Cook Political Report rates Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-Minn.) district, which Trump won by 1.2 percentage points, as “lean Democratic.”
Meanwhile, Cook rates Reps. Mikie SherrillRebecca (Mikie) Michelle SherrillGun control group rolls out House endorsements Bipartisan Senate group offers new help to state, local governments Human Rights Campaign rolls out congressional endorsements on Equality Act anniversary MORE’s (D-N.J.) and Ron KindRonald (Ron) James KindCoronavirus culture war over reopening economy hits Capitol Hill How the GOP hopes to overcome steep odds in House battle The Hill’s Campaign Report: 200 days to Election Day 2020 MORE’s (D-Wis.) races as “likely Democratic.” Trump won Sherrill’s district by 1 point and Kind’s district by 4 points.
Having Biden as their presumptive presidential nominee could also play to House Democrats’ advantage in November. Vulnerable House Democrats, such as Rep. Joe CunninghamJoseph CunninghamRepublican Nancy Mace to face Joe Cunningham in South Carolina House race OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Trump rule limits states from blocking pipeline projects | EPA finalizes rule to regulate cancer-linked chemical | Democrats want Congress to help plug ‘orphan’ oil and gas wells Gun control group rolls out House endorsements MORE in South Carolina’s 1st District, had voiced concerns about the prospect of Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, at the top of the Democratic ticket.
However, Republicans do hold an advantage in a number of key districts. Cook changed the rating for the race to fill former Rep. Katie HillKatherine (Katie) Lauren HillThe Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by The American Investment Council – Trump takes his ‘ready to reopen’ mantra on the road The Hill’s Campaign Report: Democrat concedes in California House race Republican flips House seat in California special election MORE’s (D-Calif.) district from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up”; California Assemblywoman Christie Smith (D) and former Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia (R) will face off in the vote-by-mail special general election there on May 12.
Rep. Abigail SpanbergerAbigail Davis SpanbergerGun control group rolls out House endorsements The Hill’s Campaign Report: DOJ, intel to be major issues in 2020 Human Rights Campaign rolls out congressional endorsements on Equality Act anniversary MORE’s (D-Va.) race in Virginia’s 7th District, which was also won by Trump in 2016, is considered a “toss-up” by Cook. The website also rates Rep. Lucy McBathLucia (Lucy) Kay McBathFloyd’s brother urges Congress to take action The Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE’s (D-Ga.) seat in Georgia’s 6th District as a “toss-up.” That district was won by Trump in 2016 and was formerly held by former Rep. Karen HandelKaren Christine HandelJon Ossoff to challenge David Perdue after winning Georgia Democratic primary The Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Ossoff within reach of Democratic Senate nomination in Georgia, but counting continues MORE (R-Ga.), who is running again for the seat.
The coronavirus pandemic could have the biggest impact on the race. The crisis has forced candidates in all races to resort to virtual campaigning.
Republican candidates could see an enthusiasm and fundraising advantage with Trump at the top of the ticket. However, Democrats will likely be given another opportunity to run on health care, an issue with which they solidly won the House in 2018.