The prognosticating groundhog Punxsutawney Phil may or may not deliver chilly news to Americans suffering through the polar vortex on Groundhog Day, which is Saturday, Feb. 2. As the legend goes, if the groundhog sees its shadow, winter will stick around for six more weeks; if not, spring is just around the corner.
The forecast for partly cloudy skies in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, on Groundhog Day — Saturday, Feb. 2 — leaves some mystery to the varmint’s verdict on how much longer winter will last.
Punxsutawney Phil, the famous handle given to various groundhogs that are roused at sunrise for the annual ritual on Gobbler’s Knob in the Pennsylvania wilds, isn’t that accurate a barometer for the end of the winter — surprising considering the ritual has been going on for more than 120 years.
But whatever the rodent forecasts regarding the end of winter, the weather can’t be much worse in Punxsutawney than it has been this week. One of the areas affected by the brutally cruel polar vortex, Punxsutawney is recovering from the way-below subzero temperatures that shattered records across the Midwest and Northeast.
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And keep in mind. Though always popular, Phil isn’t always right — though if you ask Phil’s entourage, the Inner Circle of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, the groundhog will be right somewhere in the world. Phil predicted six more weeks of winter in 2018, and he sure wasn’t wrong about that. He’s got about 50/50 odds, actually, and since 1988 and has gotten it right 15 times and wrong 16 times.
If you prefer to pay attention to science rather than a rodent, don’t look for the daffodils and crocuses to start popping up anytime soon. Though the polar vortex is blissfully heading back to the Arctic where it belongs and more tolerable weather is forecast in the frozen Midwest and Northeast this weekend, weather experts warn cold Arctic air will likely wander south again through the end of February.
AccuWeather also says spring will be a long time coming this year, though it won’t be as tardy as it was last year, when snow and cold lasted well into April and then quickly transitioned to summer heat. The weather company’s long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said the extreme cold “will be back again for the second half of February with more cold and stormy weather for the eastern half of the nation.”
“This year we’ll see a better transition, with some spring weather expected across the nation.”
Here’s what AccuWeather says about winter across the contry:
Great Lakes and Northeast: El Niño’s active southern storm track may hold back significant warmth until early March, and there could be one or two big snowstorms yet to come this winter.
Midwest: This week’s polar vortex was especially nasty and in many areas sent actual temperatures more than 20 degrees below zero and wind chills at least twice that cold. Get used it, because more blasts of cold Arctic air coming through the remainder of winter.
Plains and the West: Look for a week or so of above-normal temperatures in the second week of February before more seasonable air returns.
Here are five things to know about Groundhog Day:
1. Before there was a Groundhog Day, there was Candlemas, an early Christian holiday in which candles were blessed and distributed by local clergy. The celebrants eventually declared that clear skies on Candlemas meant winter would persist. Germans selected an animal — the hedgehog — to predict the end of winter, and brought the idea to America. Groundhogs, which are also known as woodchucks, were plentiful in Pennsylvania, where many Germans settled, so the tradition was Americanized.
2. Punxsutawney Phil has his own “inner circle” — the guys who are always pictured wearing top hats as he emerges. They’re a group of local dignitaries charged with planning the festivities and ensuring they come off without a hitch every year, but also with the feeding and care of Phil.
3. Punxsutawney Phil is pretty spoiled. He doesn’t have to burrow into the dirt to survive winter like less-famous groundhogs. He lives in a warm terrarium built into the Punxsutawney library and visitors can stop and gawk at him any time they want.
4. Groundhogs have an average lifespan of six to eight years, 10 tops, but Punxsutawney Phil gets a life-extending elixir — called “groundhog punch” — every summer during the annual Groundhog Picnic to extend his lifespan by as much as seven years. An added effect of the punch is that it makes Phil appear to have gotten a dye job, because his coat might be gray one year and a youngish-looking brown the next.
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5. The 1993 movie “Groundhog Day” gave the celebration in Punxsutawney a big boost. Bill Murray stars as a hapless weatherman named Phil. Dispatched to cover the emergence of the groundhog from its hole, he is caught in a blizzard he didn’t predict. Trapped in a time warp, he can’t escape and must live the day over and over until he gets it right. Murray went to Punxsutawney in 1992 to prepare for the role, and by 1997, the number of people attending the festivities had swelled to about 35,000 visitors.
Photo: Punxsutawney Phil is held up by his handler for the crowd to see during the ceremonies for Groundhog day on Feb. 2, 2018, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. According to legend, early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)