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UK can’t escape Irish backstop with no-deal Brexit

The Brexit deal between London and Brussels contains a so-called backstop provision | Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images

UK can’t escape Irish backstop with no-deal Brexit

Even in a cliff-edge scenario Brussels will want UK to settle the money, citizens’ rights and the Irish border.

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No deal is no escape from the Northern Ireland backstop.

The U.K. will face firm preconditions for any talks with the EU following a no-deal Brexit, European Commission Secretary-General Martin Selmayr told ambassadors at a meeting in Brussels today.

A day after the U.K. parliament rejected a host of Brexit outcomes, EU officials met to take stock of their own options. They reaffirmed that a no-deal scenario cannot be as favorable as the deal negotiated between London and Brussels in November.

Speaking to ambassadors of the EU27 countries, Selmayr said that if the U.K. leaves without a deal, the EU must present it with three preconditions for starting any new discussions, three diplomats confirmed to POLITICO. These are: Trade talks will not begin until the U.K. agrees to settle its financial obligations to the bloc; the protection of EU citizens’ rights in the U.K. must be ensured; and there must be safeguards to protect the Good Friday Agreement, Selmayr said, according to the diplomats.

EU officials are worried that if the U.K. crashes out of the bloc, it would suspend its payments into the EU’s coffers, despite what the EU regards as a legal obligation to keep transferring funds it has pledged under the bloc’s long term budget.

One senior EU diplomat noted that the three areas brought up in the meeting are “permanent concerns” for the EU27. Another senior diplomat argued that “if one walks out of a marriage, one cannot then approach one’s former spouse as if they are meeting for the very first time ever.”

With political turmoil in London, the EU27’s strategy remains to keep the ball firmly in the British court, in an attempt to ensure that Brussels is not blamed for any no-deal fallout.

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In the meeting, Selmayr said that the EU27 must keep a united front in order to maintain its advantageous position in the negotiations, one of the diplomats said. He also said that when leaders meet “they should also make clear that there can be no mini-deals” to make a no-deal scenario more tempting, two of the diplomats said.

The Commission secretary-general also noted that officials should focus on sending a message to the public that it is highly prepared for a no-deal scenario, the diplomats said.

While officials remain puzzled at developments in London, they are also setting the stage for their own next move. “If the House of Commons defeats the deal again, you can expect a European Council on April 10,” another EU diplomat said. That is two days before the new postponed Brexit day, as agreed by EU leaders at a summit in Brussels last week.

If the House of Commons does not ratify the deal on Friday, President of the European Council Donald Tusk will officially call the extraordinary summit, another diplomat said.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier briefed the meeting that both scenarios if the deal is not ratified — no deal and a long extension — have a cost for the EU. He expressed a concern that in a long extension, the U.K. might attempt to “mix up” all the aspects of the divorce and future relationship, according to one diplomat at the meeting. The rigid sequencing of the Brexit discussions imposed by Brussels has prevented that from happening thus far.

Another diplomat commented on the proposal for a permanent customs union with the EU — the option put forward by former Chancellor Ken Clarke that was closest to passing a series of indicative votes among MPs Wednesday evening.

“If parliament votes for the customs union we will still need the Withdrawal Agreement because a Customs Union would say nothing on things such as citizens rights, Northern Ireland and financial settlement,” the diplomat said.

Authors:
Jacopo Barigazzi 

and

Lili Bayer 

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