Emmanuel Macron and the En Marche! movement in Nantes, western France, on April 19, 2017.Vincent Feuray/Press Association. All rights reserved.The day after the stunning
results of France’s presidential election first round last Sunday April 23
which saw maverick candidate Emmanuel Macron first past the post, overtaking in
the last days of the campaign arch-favourite extreme right Marine Le Pen,
things for a time seemed to be going back to the bad old days of French
politics.
Or are they? After only a
few hours, the traditional parties who have been ousted from the second round
for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic – the ruling Socialists
and right wing Republicans (LR) – were back to their traditional petty party
politics.
Yes, the PS, stunned by the
humiliation of its candidate, leftist Benoît Hamon who came out fifth with
6 % of the votes, has immediately cast its support behind Macron. Yes this
was expected but, for their divided leaders, the time has not yet come to
analyse the reasons for this disaster. They intend to muddle through till next
June’s legislative elections, hoping for an awakening of their traditional voters,
who left in droves to vote Macron or for populist leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon
(4th with 19%).
The world has changed but
they don’t seem to realise it and seem instead to hope that, next June, they
will be strong enough to impose their leadership on the new Macron
« progressive » left, right and centre En Marche ! coalition.
On the Republican side, the
spontaneous support for Macron just after the – predicted but, for them,
unbelievable – defeat of their tarnished candidate, former Prime Minister François
Fillon, was a welcome reminder of what the French have for decades called the
« Republican » spirit, i.e. all together against the National Front
(FN). A tradition which had brought them all together behind President Jacques
Chirac when, in 2002, Ms Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, unexpectedly arrived
second, defeating outgoing Socialist premier, Lionel Jospin. Millions took to
the streets to support Chirac against « fascism », giving him a
majority of 80 % of the votes. This spirit was repeated on Sunday night
when Fillon, like many LR leaders, moderates but not only, of the younger
generation of leaders but not only, said they would vote Macron and asked their
supporters to do so.
Yet, during a leadership
meeting on Monday afternoon, the mood changed as party stalwarts – starting
with former President Nicolas Sarkozy who still wants to pull the strings
despite his humiliating defeat at the last conservative primaries – fought for
a lame compromise which would protect the interests of all those who are craving
to replace Fillon at the head of the party.
One former minister even
jumped ship to support Ms Le Pen. Some wanted an open support, others – like
Sarkozy – advocated a vote against the FN without mentioning Macron, or simply
abstaining. Hoping like the PS that things would go back to
« normal », ie that they would win the legislative elections and lead
a shaky « cohabitation » with the new President. A face-saving device
to hide the divisions which have been destabilising France’s two – till last
week – traditional ruling parties.
Then we have Mélenchon, the
maverick of all mavericks, who led a brilliant campaign to arrive just 1/2
point behind Fillon but failed in his hopes to reach the second round. His
popular, and populist criticism of traditional politics attracted a lot of
disgruntled voters, including probably some who would otherwise have voted FN,
the other populist party.
But, if he fell short it
was mostly because of his threat to leave the EU and the euro, a position which
frightened off many potential voters. Just like his close ties with Putin’s
Russia and his old friendship with Venezuela’s President Chavez, together with
his idea to leave NATO and replace it with a wobbly alliance with « non
aligned » Russia, Iran or the Latin America « Bolivarian
alliance ».
So, the man who, in 2002,
had supported rightist Chirac against « fascism » and wanted to
implement compulsory voting has so far refused to take sides between what he
brands « ultra liberal » Macron and extremist Le Pen, the plague and
cholera, as the French saying goes.
So, this new situation
which looked simple with a choice between two different types of societies, has
to face once again a bitter resistance from entrenched political interests from
all sides, led by politicians who – from the Le Pen dynasty to the far left –
have been in politics for two, three or four decades and intend to remain
around for as long as possible, and to benefit from the perks which go along
with it.
Many, though not all,
cannot understand or accept that someone could simply have the audacity to rock
the boat, especially a 39-year old youngster who has never been elected and
thus is not « one of us ».
The bubble
A democratic candidate
standing alone against the far right, a European candidate against a majority
of anti-Europeans or Eurosceptic other candidates, a man who wants to do away
with old style politics and the traditional war to the finish between two rival
parties which has, for decades, led the one to cancel out most of the initiatives
from its predecessor, only to have its successor do the same.
A man who wants to promote
reconciliatory politics by joining together men and women from all sides of the
democratic spectrum on a common platform to try to cope with the evils of
French society: low growth, the high rate of unemployment (up to 25 % of French
youth), high taxes on business which are hampering investments and promoting
outsourcing and de-industrialisation, thus promoting the anger and frustrations
of so many voters now attracted by the extremes, who now represent just under
half of French voters.
Enough voters have voted
Macron to give him a chance to implement his platform. A type of unifying,
cooperative and non-divisive platform the French are unused to. Several reasons lie behind this amazing shock to the system in this very socially and politically divided French society, too long
polarised between left and right. Macron’s strategic
« genius » has been to understand this, to play with his rivals’
weaknesses – like Fillon’s attraction to money which has left him indicted
and which certainly contributed to his downfall – and to give disorientated
voters enough hope or optimism contrasting with ambient pessimism about
France’s « decline » to convince them that perhaps, things might become
better and that the old solutions promoted by old men – and few women – have had
their day.
Macron has also been helped
by an amazingly efficient organisation team, not unlike the one Barack Obama created
during his first election in 2008. Unknown as a politician only one year ago,
alone among the big names of politics, lambasted by his rivals and the media as
a mere ephemeral « bubble », he has managed – to the surprise of many
– to build from scratch his En Marche! mouvement to more than 200,000 members –
more than any French party today – and tens of thousands of enthusiastic
activists, from start-uppers to pensioners, who have run an incredibly
professional and efficient campaign, gathering more volunteers than any of his
rivals.
Yet the hard realities of
French politics and society, the difficult situation France is facing, within
its borders as well as in Europe remain. He has less than two weeks to convince
millions of new voters to give him an ample majority on May 8, to go from
24 % of the votes to more than 50 % and, hopefully, more than
60 %. Then he will have to have as many MPs voted in as possible in the June
parliamentary elections to run a new government with, he says, half of its
representatives new figures plus gender parity; or, at least, to have enough
MPs to control the new majority he wants to build and not to become hostage to
the PS or the LR.
And only then will the hard
part begin, which is convincing conservative French society that his untested
new politics might do better where the old ones have failed. An uphill task
indeed. But, at least, Macron has a chance to show that, even in France, change
is not necessarily for the worse, like it was with the UK Brexit, and the
election of Donald Trump.