Keiko and Alberto Fujimori (Photo: infolatam.com)
Fujimorism, which for a decade (from 1990 to 2000) led an authoritarian regime in
Peru smeared by corruption and violations of human rights, is
threatening a comeback. It came close to doing it in 2011, when
Keiko Fujimori lost
in the runoff election against current president Ollanta Humala. Today, ahead of the April elections this year, the daughter of former dictator Alberto
Fujimori, currently in jail, is leading all the opinion
polls. Support for her is at 30 to 35%, which puts her
solidly in the first place. Not enough, though, for winning the presidency
in the first round and avoiding a runoff.
According to three recent surveys, a
tough fight is going on for the second place, which entitles to second place in
the runoff. Economist and business manager Pedro Pablo Kuzcynski’s support is
at 13 to 14%. The polls are giving César Acuña, a millionaire provincial leader
who is pouring money and right-wing populism into the campaign, a surprising 10
to 15%. Former president Alan García (1985-1990 and 2006-2011) is bogged down at
6 to 8%. Unexpectedly rising in the polls – from 2 to 5% – in recent weeks,
young economist Julio Guzmán, the economic right’s new face, is now very much
into the race and attracting much media coverage. Former president Alejandro
Toledo (2002-2006), burdened by accusations of illicit enrichment during his mandate,
does not seem to have much of a future with his 3% backing. The support for the
official candidate Daniel Urresti is now at only 2% and there seem to be no
prospects of him rising any higher. All of them agree to defend the continuity
of the neoliberal model. The exception to the dominant discourse is young
congresswoman Verónika Mendoza, the candidate of the leftist Frente Amplio, with
a 2% support too but with some potential for going up, according to the analysts.
Then comes the rest. In all, there are 19 candidates running for the presidency.
How to explain the high support for Keiko Fujimori, Alberto Fujimori’s political heiress, after her
father’s dictatorship came to an abrupt end amid corruption scandals and serious violations of human rights?
"Alberto Fujimori’s
government ended over 15 years ago and many Peruvians between the ages of 18 and 34 simply do not know what it was like. In addition, we should not forget that
Fujimori used patronage to a great extent and there is a sector of the population that has good memories
of his way of managing things. Also Keiko,
unlike the rest of her competitors who were busy doing
something else, has been campaigning for five years. Keiko owes her support to her father and to herself: she has built a more engaging image of Fujimorism that
is quite acceptable to many", says political
analyst and professor at the Catholic University in Lima Fernando Tuesta.
For his part, Luis Benavente,
political communication expert and director of the consultancy firm Vox Populi,
maintains that "Fujimorism is
neo-populism. It is the strongest brand of right-wing
populism in Latin America. Support
for Keiko has a lot to do with the appeal of that populism and also
with the patronage which went on in the Fujimori years. Her supports
come mainly from rural and lower urban sectors. Keiko has distanced herself from the harshest side of Fujimorism, she is
changing the authoritarian
image of her party. It is not a real change, but it works as an electoral strategy".
About the race for second place,
Tuesta thinks that "the best
placed candidate is César Acuña, whose support has been growing in
the provincial and popular sectors. He is using his personal story as a humble person who has been successful against
the odds, his image as an
emerging Peruvian. And it is working".
To Benavente, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is another
favourite for the runoff. The
problem is that his
candidacy is failing to connect
with the popular sectors. His support comes mainly from the middle and upper classes,
and if he does not manage to change this, he will stall.
About former president Alan García, both analysts
agree that the narcoindultos (drug-pardons) scandal (i.e., the pardons granted by García during his second term to more than
three thousand convicted drug
traffickers) is hitting him hard. "This is a fatal weight for him to be carrying", says Tuesta, for
whom García, with a rejection rate at 70%, "is
a worn out candidate” who cannot hope to rise again.
Tuesta and Benavente agree that Julio Guzmán,
who benefits from having positioned
himself as the "new one" in these elections where voters are looking for something new, has room to keep
growing and fight for a place
at the runoff.
According to Benavente, leftist Verónika Mendoza
has options to grow too and get into the fight: "She is a very attractive candidate, but
lacks a good campaign strategy. Her discourse is very rational,
which is good but does not get down well
with Peruvian voters. The academic tinge in her speech
is preventing her from connecting with
the masses. If she changes her strategy,
she can surge and put up a fight.
There is a demand for change in the country
and a well-crafted leftist option could battle for a
place in the runoff".
There is still a very high level of undecided voters and allegiance to the
candidates is still shaky. This, notes Benavente, accounts for about 60% of the
electorate. The game is far from over yet.
The Spanish version of this
article was published by La
línea de fuego.