Billboard for Bolsonaro's presidential campaign. Almanaque Lusofonista & Creative Commons Attribution.
The election of the extreme-right candidate Bolsonaro to the
presidency of Brazil consolidates the wave of right-wing governments that have
been recently dominating the election cycle throughout the region: Argentina, Chile,
Paraguay, Peru, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras..They all opted for a right-wing political drift, away from the "pink tide" of the 2000's.
The immediate resemblance of Bolsonaro to Trump, or the
explicit threat to the Amazon rainforest and social activism, show what the upcoming government may be capable of, a government that is so extreme-right that is
occupies a space reserved for authoritarian tendencies.
Only Mexico, with its
anti-cyclical tendencies, Ecuador and Costa Rica, have managed to buck the
trend, and the traditional left in Venezuela and Nicaragua have also adopted repressive and authoritarian traits (Bolivia is a particular case).
The analysis regarding the reasons for this
ultra-conservative populist turn in Brazil and the world has been saturating
the media as of late. There is not one sole reason, nor have all phenomena of
this type manifested themselves in the same way.
However we can determine at
least 5 insecurities that led Brazilians to vote for this strong-man-iron-fist
figure in the second round of elections last week.
1. Economic insecurity
The deep crash of the Brazilian economy in 2015/2016 hit
the population hard. A country used to strong economic growth suddenly found
itself in a state of decline by 7.4%, producing a huge sense of economic insecurity
among the population.
The rich saw their internal market and their fiscal
privileges threatened without receiving compensation in return, in the context
of the growing public deficit. The middle classes, especially the millions of Brazilians
who have been lifted out of poverty recently, fear for their savings and their
jobs, and in too many cases they are right to do so.
The poor, finally, saw how
the arrival of conservative president Temer and a strong drop in state funding
cut significantly their minimum borrowing capacity.
The Workers Party, that in
their last years in government betrayed many of their supporters by introducing
austerity policies, could not build strong alliances, and after being accused
of corruption and thievery, were portrayed as the great enemy.
With a tough discourse, an entrepreneurial edge, and a
desire to lift Brazil out of the economic rubble, Bolsonaro connected with the
electorate. “Brazil above everything, and God above everyone” was his electoral
catchphrase.
Putting “honesty”, individual morality and the virtues of the
market/privatisation first, he was able to take advantage of economic
uncertainty and rise to victory.
2. Public insecurity
A hard hand against violence is one of the most divisive
principles of Bolsonaro. The formula consists of increasing militarisation in a
country where military presence on the streets is already common, decreasing
the age of penal responsibility that threatens to fill prisons with young
people, and freeing access to firearms, that will surely cause an increase in
the already unbearable number of homicide victims.
Public insecurity has no magical solution, but the combination of self-defence and militarism, although irresponsible, has proved extremely popular.
The gesture of shooting with both hands has become a symbol
of identity of the ‘Bolsominos’. With more than 60000 murders per year and a
prison population of more than 725,000, the third largest in the world, fear
and violence and the promise to put an end to banditry struck a chord with
Brazilian voters.
Public insecurity has no magical solution, but the
combination of self-defence and militarism, although irresponsible, has proved
extremely popular.
3. Political insecurity
The smearing of the political classes which has been
observed throughout the region, has an added element in Brazil that has
facilitated this process: corruption, that in fact, is a cross-party
phenomenon.
The clean-up operation conducted by judges ended up with Lula da
Silva, the most popular candidate, in prison, and the political pursuit of the
right to supress the Brazilian left culminated in the impeachment of Dilma
Roussef in 2016.
The strong anti-corruption sentiment opened the door for an
outsider that although he had been in the very Brazilian congress for 28 years
prior to the elections working alongside those who he suddenly called corrupt,
presented himself as entirely clean.
The destruction of the Workers Party
accused of being communist and pro-Venezuela, together alongside the millions
of those who felt disenchantment with the achievements of Lula’s government,
has proved yet again successful.
The enormous lack of prestige of all political parties, and
the insecurity regarding the trustworthiness of the political class identified
as ‘the elites’ or ‘the establishment’, highlights the urgency of a change in
the system.
This is ideal ground for a Bolsonaro type to appear as the ‘saviour
to the problems of the people’ with a miraculous and simple formula. Much the
same as the famous US comedy the Blues Brothers, Bolsonaro is here to complete
a “mission from God”.
4 and 5. Identity and informational insecurity
To these three insecurities two more can be added: identity
insecurity, that has seen a battle between civil rights and diversity up
against traditional family values and the Bible, and informational insecurity,
that has seen attacks on conventional media outlets, writing them off as liars
and manipulators.
This opened up space for the circulation en masse of fake news, where truth no longer exists and post-truth triumphs. What matters is what one believes, even if it’s only what you’ve read on WhatsApp and it’s already known that people are sharing lies.
This opened up space for the circulation en masse of fake
news, where truth no longer exists and post-truth triumphs. What matters is
what one believes, even if it’s only what you’ve read on WhatsApp and it’s
already known that people are sharing lies.
These are the 5 insecurities that could help explain why
Jair Messias Bolsonaro has triumphed so significantly in Brazil. His extreme
positions will no doubt plunge the country into a state of total insecurity,
and the only question is, how long will it take?