April 2016.Pakistan's Army Chief General addresses a seminar on 'Prospects of Peace And Prosperity In Balochistan.'Anjum Naveed/Press Association. All rights reserved.Pakistan and India are
engaged in a war of words at the highest level. Unusually provocative
statements have been made by the two Prime Ministers. The area of contest and
conflict has been widened. The TV channels in the two countries beat the war
drums every night.
Pakistan queered the
pitch when it saw India failing to deal with the Kashmiris protesting against the
killing of a terrorist. Pakistan’s Prime Minister dedicated his nation’s Independence
Day to Kashmir’s freedom from India! Provoked, India stooped to Pakistan’s
level, engaging in a tit-for-tat game. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
could hardly allow himself to be seen as a wimp. He made references to Pakistan-occupied
Kashmir, to some other Pakistani territories and to the human rights violations
in Balochistan.
A dignified silence
was not an option for the Indian Prime Minister. Not when a wave of
hyper-nationalism has been set off by his party and its extended political
family. By referring to Balochistan, Prime Minister Modi signalled: You question India’s territorial integrity, I will
question Pakistan’s. You interfere in our internal affairs, we will interfere
in yours.
Modi’s fans were
elated. They saw it as a fitting riposte to Pakistan! The ruling BJP saw
aggressive patriotism fetching it more votes in the coming state-level
elections. The jingoistic utterances by the ruling party leaders and by the TV
channels energise the BJP support base: but these make the restoration of normalcy in
the troubled Kashmir a bit more difficult.
Pakistan feels encouraged
to provoke New Delhi because of its close ties with China and its successful use
of Islamic terrorism against India, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. It sees an
opportunity in the upsurge of sectarian sentiments in India. Will Pakistan be
deterred from organising more terror strikes in Kashmir as a result of the
Indian Prime Minister opening the Balochitsan front? This remains to be seen.
For different reasons,
India’s new approach also touches India’s ties with China, Iran and
Afghanistan. China has stakes in Balochistan because of the so-called China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor. Iran and Afghanistan have problems with the vision of a Great
Balochistan.
The world always made
a distinction between India and Pakistan, even though because of the Cold War,
India’s moral standing or its democratic credentials did not earn India any
bonus. India’s new pragmatic foreign policy practitioners may argue that
morality does not pay. In one more sphere, India now mirrors Pakistan.
The Modi Government’s
capacity to make peace overtures to Pakistan as also its ability to deal with
the separatists in Kashmir are at a low point. Both have been constricted by
the outbreak of hyper-nationalism in India. Domestic politics should not
influence the conduct of foreign policy but it does.
There is a concerted
campaign to fuel jingoism in India as a winning political strategy. The
vigilante groups intimidate the “anti-national elements”. Those discussing Rabindranath
Tagore’s criticism of nationalism are called unpatriotic intellectuals.
A
fashion for aggressive patriotism
Displaying aggressive patriotism has become fashionable. Those who consider it disgusting hesitate to express their views lest they get abused on the road. Some vigilante groups have ruled what is nationalism and they track those not following their diktat. A visiting foreign correspondent would get the impression that two rival tribes inhabit India, the nationalists and the anti-nationals.
Some political outfits
in India, flaunting aggressive patriotism, have been opposing visits by Pakistani
musicians, singers and film actors. India’s public diplomacy campaign is not
helped when its defence minister calls Pakistan, “Hell”.
When a former woman MP
on her return from Pakistan says Pakistan is no Hell, a “patriotic” person
filed a sedition case against her! The ideological followers of the Indian
Prime Minister routinely ask his critics to migrate to Pakistan. Vigilante
groups intimidate the “anti-nationals” with impunity.
Taking a cue from the
Prime Minister, Indian TV channels suddenly discovered the Pakistani territory
called Balochistan. They began showing Al Jazeera’s archival footage of the
Pakistani forces committing atrocities against the civilians there. One TV
channel blatantly boasts of its “patriotic coverage” and attacks the rivals for
the lack of it. Every channel carries interviews with the exiled Baloch
separatist leaders who express their gratitude to Modi.
Some critics call
Modi’s Pakistan policy inconsistent. This was the same Modi who had invited the
Pakistani Prime Minister to his inauguration. He let a Pakistani team visit the
sensitive Pathankot air base that was attacked by Pakistani terrorists. Also,
in a surprise move, Modi joined the Pakistani Prime Minister at his home in
celebrating a family function.
After this fruitless
endeavour to be seen in South Asia as an emerging statesman, Modi returned to
his default position. As the Chief Minister of Gujarat, he had won a state
election by deriding “Mia Musharraf” of Pakistan. He had relentlessly attacked
the weak-kneed Manmohan Singh Government.
India’s “muscular”
response may or may not restrain the official Pakistan; it will adversely
affect the way Pakistanis see India. That the good will they harbour towards
Indians does not influence Pakistan’s official policy is another matter. The
state has always used Islamic terrorism to harm India by a thousand cuts and
yet wars and war-mongering by Pakistan failed to vitiate the people-to-people
relations.
Every Pakistani
visiting India and every Indian visiting Pakistan would testify to a reservoir
of mutual good will. Despite Pakistani military dictators orienting their
nation towards the Islam of the Arabic nations, the people of Pakistan continue
to cherish their South Asian ethos. India must not lose an advantage in the
battle for the hearts and minds of the people of a neighbouring country.
The Pakistani rulers through their history
text-books have tried for years to alienate the young from India and fuel
anti-India sentiments. This process will now be helped by the aggressive rhetoric
coming from India’s political leaders.
Early
consequences
New Delhi’s new
approach has already led to some consequences. The Balochi dissidents living in
Pakistan face increased violence from the Pakistani forces. Pakistan says that
Modi’s statement proved that India was creating trouble in Balochistan.
How will the Indian
Prime Minister follow up the Balochistan issue? Opposing the separatists in
Kashmir and supporting them in Balochistan will be a complex exercise.
Modi has raised the
expectations of the Baloch freedom-fighters. The Baloch exiles, who thank Modi
from Europe and America, have come to expect more than just statements. Their gratitude
will last as long as the war of words between India and Pakistan continues. The
Baloch freedom-fighters have for decades seen the powerful nations using or
misusing the issue of “human rights violations”.
If the Indo-Pak
equation happens to improve, where will it leave Balochistan? How will the
Baloch leaders, persecuted by Pakistan, feel if Modi were to stop making
statements on their plight? Some of them may then be reminded of the phrase
“thrown to the wolves”.
Modi’s activism will
partly depend on the signals from a US that has always overlooked the human
rights violations in Balochistan and the killing of eminent opposition leaders
in Pakistan. Is America, in its own national interests, ready to make a
departure in this regard? China’s role in Pakistan and specifically in
Balochistan is another factor being examined by the foreign policy experts.
Normally, such a
significant, though symbolic, change in India’s stance would have sparked a vigorous
debate. In the current atmosphere, an Indian diplomat is unlikely to give a
frank opinion in official meetings. This makes any rational discussion
difficult.
Some commentators did
refer to India giving up its high moral ground etc. but the weak notes of
dissent were drowned in the loud applauding noise emanating from the TV studios.
The Opposition leaders do not wish to be called “pro-Pakistan”. In the present
political scenario, public perception is influenced by fiction.
Face-saving
formulae
India has in the past had
a distinctive conflict-resolution policy. It ignored some provocations by Pakistan and
carried on the path of development. Consequently, India emerged as a growing
economic power. Now there is rethinking on that Pakistan policy, as past
leaders have to be discredited.
The current wave of
hyper-nationalism has made a meaningful diplomatic engagement with Pakistan
difficult. However, given the erratic nature of Indo-Pak relations, usually
such spells do not last. At times, some wise counsel prevails in New Delhi and
Islamabad. At times, a third powerful country forces the two sides to break the
impasse. Pakistan may find it necessary to follow up its hostile rhetoric with
friendly messages!
Modi will then have to
find a face-saving formula because he leads a democracy. Pakistan can take a
U-turn without any risk. The Modi fans will have to justify the Prime
Minister’s visit to Pakistan for a South Asian summit, if that takes place.
They will have to justify it should New Delhi invite the Pakistani Prime
Minister to watch a cricket match in India!
The Modi Government’s inconsistent Pakistan
policy makes the dangerous rhetoric less credible. Had it not been so, foreign
TV reporters would have rushed to this region once described as the most
dangerous in the world. This has not happened because these two nuclear-armed nations
are still not considered quite mad.
In the crucial coming
weeks, one will know whether a meaningful Indo-Pak dialogue will be resumed or
new fronts of contest will be opened. Will war-mongering be followed by
friendly gestures and invitations for talks? Perhaps the charade will go on
because the alternative is too horrendous for the world. It looks like a flashpoint
but then it may not be one!
The world as well as
Modi’s critics and fans at home will watch the impact of his audacious move to
give a new twist to India’s Pakistan policy. If a nation abandons a foreign
policy tempered with ethics, it must have the capacity to succeed in the world
of realpolitik. The euphoric reaction being worked up in India to Modi’s
muscular approach will last as long as the new policy shows some success.